Canadian military website shows massive numbers on COVID-19

Defense Research and Development Canada

Thunder Bay – COVID-19 Update – The Thunder Bay District Health Unit and Northwestern Health Unit say that due to changes in COVID-19 testing, testing has been limited due to new guidelines.

In Manitoba, the actual number of COVID-19 cases is likely much higher – as many as eight to ten times, according to the deputy chief public health officer Dr. Jazz Awtal. “There are a lot of cases that we don’t know about. Historically, with the… Delta [coronavirus variant], we knew that for every case we identified, we were missing four, ”Awtal said at a press conference. “With this Omicron variant, probably for every case we’ve identified, we’re missing maybe eight, maybe 10 cases.”

This combination of factors has led to confusion over what the real numbers might be with the COVID-19 reports.

The Winnipeg Free Press reported: “Up to 41% of Winnipeggers could have active COVID-19, suggests military modeling – a week after province admitted it can no longer accurately record growing number of cases .

This estimated prevalence is based on the typical ratio of known cases to asymptomatic cases that never get tested, the incubation times of the novel coronavirus and when they are most infectious to others, according to a dashboard designed by Defense Research and Development. Canada, a government agency that advises the Canadian Armed Forces.

A spokesperson for the Department of National Defense told NetNewsLedger: “We are providing this tool primarily for use by the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) to understand their local risk environment in Canada and abroad and not to individuals. general public health purposes.

“We do not have an advisory role to government outside of the CAF. The tool has been made available globally to provide easy access to CAF Medical Advisors, regardless of location and as part of the Government of Canada’s Open Data initiative. Knowing that only a fraction of COVID-19 infections are detected by testing, the numbers found in this model are not numbers of cases, but rather estimates based on existing epidemiological information. In short, it is a tool used to estimate trends in prevalence and not actual cases ”.

Using information provided by the Defense Research and Development site, the Winnipeg Free Press reports, “In data updated Tuesday morning, the scorecard suggests that about 41.4% of the population of The Winnipeg Regional Health Authority has active COVID-19 at 326,317 people.

“Officially, Manitoba has 22,605 active laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Winnipeg – although the province says this is vastly underreported, as PCR lab tests are rationed to select groups. “

Using the data, this suggests that the numbers for COVID-19 in the Thunder Bay district have climbed between 16% and 21% of the population.

The numbers in the Northwestern Health Unit serving area are similar.

These numbers, if correct, would place the COVID-19 numbers in the 20,000 case range, if the data is correct.

Thunder Bay City Manager Norm Gale told NetNewsLedger: “I cannot offer any data on the prevalence of COVID-19 in Thunder Bay; I also cannot comment on the website you share with us.

In development… This landmark story will be updated…


Caring for someone with COVID-19

If anyone in your home has COVID-19, here are some care tips to keep you and your home safe.

  • Limit care responsibilities to one person. Ideally, this person would be fully immunized.
  • Protect yourself by both wearing a medical mask, washing your hands frequently, disinfecting high-contact surfaces, distancing yourself when possible, and maintaining good ventilation in common areas.
  • Stock up on essentials like groceries, cleaning supplies, and prescriptions before your isolation begins.
  • Watch yourself and the person you are caring for for symptoms.
  • The caregiver must quarantine himself with the person positive for COVID-19.

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